I was on Fox News – Your World with Neil Cavuto — this week discussing the fact that gold hit $1600 an ounce. I want to give a big shout out to Larry Shover, the author of Trading Options in Turbulent Markets who (literally) wrote the book on how to invest during economic turmoil.
First of all, remember that “safe investing” is an oxymoron. When you invest seriously (for more than 1% on a bank CD), then you are going to face some kind of risk. But there are some areas to invest that present less risk than others. So with that disclaimer, let’s look at where to put your money in a turbulent economy.
1. Stock Market (S/P 500 stocks): It’s important to acknowledge that there have been and will likely be strong corporate profits. The stock market is very attractively priced – especially given the good profits and strong balance sheets of the top-tier US stocks. Could the stock market go lower? Of course, yet the “cheapness” in the stock market is a reflection of: Sovereign debt, US issues, concern of slowdown in emerging economies. It would appear a lot of this negative stuff is already priced into the market. Any top-tier (dividend paying) issue is a good long-term bet.
2. CTA: Invest in a “Commodities Trading Advisor” most of which take advantage of the various/sundry trends in the market whether they be up or down. CTA’s tend to perform very,very well in economic uncertainty – especially in very toxic markets like 2008. Every portfolio should take advantage of a CTA fund that captures trends in: FX, oil, grains, indexes, bonds, et al. Warning: CTA’s can be very volatile yet, history has proven that even with the volatility they tend to be less risky.
3. Gold: According to my friend, Larry Shover, “Gold is the Casual driver of global liquidity” and,I agree. If you believe that money is to remain cheap than gold makes sense. However, if you feel there will be a spike in inflation or reverse monetary policies I wouldn’t own gold with a ten foot pole. Also, golds most recent run-up to 1600 has had more to do with contagion fear than fundamentals. I wouldn’t be suprised to see it back at around 1550 in the near-term.
4. Asian Tiger Exposure: Invest in either a mutual fund or ETF that has genuine exposure to the asian tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan). These are countries that are booming – without all the fetters of taxation and regulation. In fact, most of them have been described as replicating the US back in the early 20th century! Cheaper labor, low taxation, growing middle class = success!
America’s Family Financial Expert (R)